Yes, article from same Math Prof but it occured to me that Bloomberg, CNBC, WSJ, etc and ALL the stock pundits are continually using “if -then” analyzes and comparisons to previous incidents. But are these predictors or just random ?
good reference if you can get through it: P. Diaconis and F. Mosteller, “Methods for studying coincidences,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 84, No. 408 (December 1989) pp. 853–861.
Otherwise, stick with NYtimes series.http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/01/its-my-birthday-too-yeah/#more-134439