• Core is most troubling.

The headline figure was -7.3%, worse than the expected -3.0%. The core (non-transportation) figure was less troubling, falling 0.6% vs. expectations for a gain of 0.6%, but still indicative of falling demand.

Often, a soft durables number can be glossed over because of acute weakness in one sector. But in this case, a broad-based decline in demand appears to be the culprit. Orders for non-defense capital goods fell 3.3%, which bodes ill for the U.S. economy going forward.

This calls the entire economic recovery into question and the housing recovery in particular. New home sales missed by a wide margin last week and the sale of homes (both new and existing) spurs demand for durables as well as other goods and services.

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